Ceritalah by KARIM RASLAN (the Star Online – Malaysia)
The Philippines – with natural resources such as gold, copper, nickel and oil and gas aplenty – has tremendous potential. Last year, the republic registered an amazing 7.1% growth rate, and growing.
MALAYSIANS have looked down on the Philippines for decades, seeing the republic as South-East Asia's basket case, a source of maids, manual workers and little else.
However, with Noynoy Aquino's thumping electoral victory in last year's presidential election, international perceptions are starting to change and the Philippines fastpaced of its Rebranding.
At long last, the republic has a leader with an unquestionable mandate.
Indeed, the Philippines – especially for the businessman – is beginning to look very interesting.
On a personal note, and having experienced how Indonesia started turning around soon after Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's victory in 2004, Manila 2011 reminds me a great deal of how Jakarta was all those years ago: gradually reaching some measure of stability before booming.
Of course, recent natural disasters such as Typhoon Pedring have tended to focus our attention on the Philippines' many weaknesses, much in the same way the 2004 tsunami shook Indonesia.
Still, there's no denying that the two countries share many unfortunate similarities, beginning with their susceptibility to natural disasters, high levels of corruption and poverty, poor infrastructure and weak government.
Nonetheless, scale has its advantages.
The two great archipelagic nations are sprawling, island-based nations with huge populations – the Philippines' 94 million to Indonesia's 240 million.
Both are hampered by poor infrastructure, vast distances and a degree of lawlessness – especially in regions far from the centre of power.
However, the Philippines' poverty levels are more acute.
More than a fifth of all Filipinos (23.1 million) currently subsist on less than US$2 (RM6.2) a day.
Furthermore, the Philippines, having endured decades of Marcos' autocratic and venal kleptocracy, has only just managed to achieve a measure of political stability as institutions and civil society now seek to regain strength and resilience.
Indeed, political violence is still a reality in the Philippines – as the 2009 Maguindanao massacre tragically demonstrated.
Nevertheless, the Philippines, much like Indonesia, has tremendous potential.
In 2010, the republic registered an amazing 7.1% growth rate.
Natural resources ranging from gold, copper and nickel are also plentiful. Troubled Muslim-majority Mindanao is estimated to have a whopping US$1 trillion (RM3.1 trillion) worth of natural oil and gas deposits.
Indeed, the Philippines – for decades an international laggard – is no longer cash-strapped.
For starters, individual Filipinos have become big savers and the country's reserves (US$76bil or RM238.6bil) far exceed net foreign debt: a record that would put most European nations to shame.
There are three fast-growing drivers of the local economy; business process outsourcing (BPO), remittances and tourism.
According to the brokerage CLSA, BPO generated US$9bil (RM28.2bil) in 2010, up 25%.
Indeed, the republic is targeting US$25bil (RM78.5bil) in revenues by 2016.
Meanwhile, BPO jobs have kicked off a mini-boom as housing, banking and auto-sales have benefited from the advent of well over 600,000 middle-class consumers across the country with major hubs in provincial cities such as Cebu and Davao.
Remittances have also been growing steadily.
With over ten million Filipinos working abroad in 2010, well over US$18.8bil (RM59bil) was sent home.
Moreover, the country is sending more and more trained and skilled workers (such as nurses, accountants and technicians) to Europe, the Middle East and North America.
Tourism is also set to grow.
The archipelagic nation is set to become a major playground for North Asian tourists.
The soon-to-be inaugurated Air Asia Philippines will no doubt bring even more visitors to the islands of Bohol, Boracay and Iloilo with their white sandy beaches and historic towns and cities.
At the same time, casino operators, having witnessed Resorts World's phenomenal success, will be pouring money into newer and even grander developments along the Manila Bay area, thereby enhancing Philippine tourism offerings even more.
With a 70% approval rating, President Aquino has a golden opportunity to change his nation's future fundamentally.
Having seen how SBY has altered Indonesia's standing, it would be very unwise to bet against the Philippines' nascent turn-around.
What does this all mean for Malaysia?
For starters, it means that Filipinos, much like Indonesians, will not be flocking to work in our homes or on our plantations and construction sites in the near future.
Today's Filipino overseas workers possess skills (including fluency in the English language) that often surpass what's available in Kuala Lumpur, Johor Baru or Penang.
Second, the Philippines will become a major challenge to our own services economy.
Third, the republic's booming and vast domestic market will attract global MNCs desperate for growth, distracting them from smaller nations including our own.
As the First World shudders once again with an impending credit crisis, middle-income nations like Malaysia have to weigh their options carefully.
Are we nimble enough to compete with Singapore and Hong Kong?
If not, can we fend off the competition from the new Asean giants – Indonesia and, now, the Philippines?
Can we become a more efficient destination for global business as these vast nations begin to stir?
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