Philippines + up ratings
While the Philippines is still lobbying to have the investment grade ratings for its high liquidity and foreign currency reserves continued to grow in October 2011, giving the Philippines more than enough of a defense against a deteriorating global economic situation as it ranks now up to the 26thhighest World Gross International Reserves higher than many countries in Europe – S&P and Fitch stick the Philippines' rating as ease though it deserves upgrade.
Currently, Fitch Ratings has put the country one notch below investment grade while Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's have it rated two notches lower. This is after four recent upgrades by the agencies.
Last month, the country repaid 7% of its outstanding foreign debt, about $1.3 billion at a premium of nearly $1.7 billion, the secretary said, as part of a series of broad economic and government reforms it is undertaking to improve the country's image and governance.
The repayment of debt is expected to save the country from making expensive interest payments and takes it a step closer toward its policy goal of reducing foreign currency debt. Like other countries in the region, the Philippines, which is the largest issuer of foreign debt with nearly $16 billion outstanding, hopes to protect its economy from the swings of the currency trade by reducing its dependence on such debt.
As the Philippines economy continue to bubble, the countries GIR will also grow upward. The country's GIR now higher than the reserves of Canada, Norway, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, and most countries in Europe.
Japan remains the 2nd highest followed by Russia & Saudi Arabia. France ranks 13th lower than South Korea's 8th notch. United Kingdom is on the 20th of $114,180 Billion GIR.
Eurozone Jump -1 & -2 ratings down
Confirming earlier reports, Standard & Poor's put its ratings of 15 Euro zone countries on watch negative, implying it could lower credit ratings of countries including Germany and France.
Ahead of an EU summit Thursday and Friday, S&P said the 15 countries are at risk of a downgrade depending on what comes out of the meeting. The move, S&P said, was "prompted by our belief that systemic stresses in the eurozone have risen in recent weeks to the extent that they now put downward pressure on the credit standing of the eurozone as a whole."
S&P said Austria, Belgium, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg could have ratings lowered by up to one notch, while France, also currently AAA, and the rest of the governments, including Italy and Spain, and could see ratings lowered by up to two notches.
The ratings agency, which cut the U.S. rating one notch from AAA in August after the debt ceiling debate failed to generate significant deficit reduction plans, said the systemic stress in the Euro zone comes from five factors:
(1) Tightening credit conditions across the eurozone;
(2) Markedly higher risk premiums on a growing number of eurozone sovereigns, including some that are currently rated 'AAA';
(3) Continuing disagreements among European policy makers on how to tackle the immediate market confidence crisis and, longer term, how to ensure greater economic, financial, and fiscal convergence among eurozone members;
(4) High levels of government and household indebtedness across a large area of the eurozone; and
(5) The rising risk of economic recession in the eurozone as a whole in 2012.
Currently, we expect output to decline next year in countries such as Spain,
Portugal and Greece, but we now assign a 40% probability of a fall in output for the eurozone as a whole.
Of those factors, S&P said its review will focus on the political, external and monetary scores it assigns the region's government's, considering both "country-specific and Euro zone-wide issues that appear to us to be limiting the effectiveness of efforts to resolve the market confidence crisis." S&P will also consider the borrowing requirements of governments and European banks, as well as the European Central Bank's policy settings, which to date have not included any signals of a willingness to act as a lender of last resort. (See "What Bernanke & Friends' Latest Move Means For Markets.")
Seth Setrakian, co-head of equities at First New York Securities, highlighted the issue of high levels of government and household indebtedness mentioned by S&P, arguing that all the bailout discussions currently in effect or on the table increase, rather than decrease indebtedness in some fashion. Germany's resistance to a full-on rescue of countries like Italy without stringent debt and deficit restrictions is a positive in Setrakian's view, even if it makes trading a challenge in a highly volatile market. "For once, somebody is willing to take short-term pain for long-term gain."
Earlier Monday, France's Nicholas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel said they were determined to rework treaties in order to allow for sanctions on countries that to not meet fiscal guidelines, while the Italian government announced €30 billion in austerity measures aimed at cutting its debt load under new Prime Minister Mario Monti.
Greece, the country that kicked off the European debt crisis more than a year ago, was not one of the country's placed on watch by S&P Monday. Of course, that's because the ratings agency believes there is already "a relatively high near-term probability of default," as connoted by its CC rating.
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